Putin and Modi to Meet During Politically Treacherous Period for Russia & India

The last time Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the global landscape looked entirely distinct. The brief visit, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Months later, the large-scale military offensive of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that period preceded a significant shift in US-India relations, marked by contentious statements and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a rejection of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The high-level meeting takes place at a delicate moment. The Kremlin leader arrives following dismissing latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this engagement is its simple happening," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a movement toward a form of routine global diplomacy."

For India, the stakes are even higher. The country navigates a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's peace efforts. This elicited a sharp response from Indian officials, who called it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond originates from the Soviet period and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations increased, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has reverted to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," noted a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is observing how the situation unfolds."

Beyond international politics, India's core motivation with Russia is its strategic location. "Beijing remains the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in recent years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but not become overly reliant that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a major topic. President Putin has publicly stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports remains central. While the Indian government has stated to continue buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the private sector. At the same time, India has moved to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Russian official admitted "obstacles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "minor" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be addressed primarily through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"Yes, Prime Minister Modi has access to all parties, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to significantly influence the war," the analyst noted. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the relationship is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," driven by cold calculation in a volatile world.